Hello. Today we look at the upcoming U.S. jobs report for May, why factory price inflation isn’t passing through to China’s consumers and Covid’s implications for poverty.
Fool Me Once
After the April U.S. jobs report blindsided every economic forecaster with a disappointingly low gain in payrolls, this time around analysts are prepared for any potential surprise.
“I have a range of models that spit out zero and others that spit out a million,” said Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. financial economist at Jefferies who, like many Wall Street economists, missed last month’s figure. “That’s the world we live in right now. Honestly, anything’s possible.”
Estimates for employment in May range from a payroll increase of 335,000 — still better than the 266,000 in April — to as many as 1 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.