Like so many once-mighty conglomerates, the United Kingdom may break up.
Thursday’s elections in the U.K. feature a mishmash of election races, including for the mayor of London, but the most important for financial markets are for the Scottish Parliament.
The pro-independence Scottish National Party, led by Nicola Sturgeon, may claim a majority in the 129-seat parliament — and even were it to fall short, it could possibly govern with the Green Party, which also favors independence. This would set the stage for a request for a second independence referendum, after the failed 2014 attempt.
A request would be just that — the U.K. government headed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson would have to agree, and so far, he has been consistently against holding a Scottish referendum.
“The stronger the support for the Scottish National Party, the greater the pressure they may feel they can exert on the U.K….