There is no rhythm in Australia’s economy, just uncertainty mixed with hope | Greg Jericho

This Wednesday the latest GDP figures will be released marking a year since the economy began its sharp fall into a recession. In all likelihood the latest figures will show we are back (or nearly so) to where we were before the pandemic hit. But as nice as that would be, the numbers will only highlight how far the recovery still has to go.

The figures for the March quarter this year should be pretty good. The past two quarters saw the economic production in Australia grow by more than 3% – the first time that has happened over consecutive quarters.

Of course it came off the back of a 7% fall in the June quarter last year, which was more than three times the biggest one quarter drop ever experienced.

But if the economy in the first three months of this year grew by 1.1% we will be back to where we were at the end of 2019.

If that happens it will suggest a couple things.

Firstly, because it will still be a historically large jump (the…

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