By James Pethokoukis
The bullish case for the post-pandemic economy, at least over the short run, is basically this: A widely vaccinated population, flush with stimulus cash, begins to spend pent-up savings in a fully reopened economy. This Moody’s analytics chart sums up the case visually:
There are also expectations of a near-term productivity boost due to our changing work habits during the pandemic, such as e-commerce, virtual meetings, and working from home. Goldman Sachs thinks “all appear likely to persist to some degree, even with the reopening progressing quickly.” And over the long run, maybe we finally see a significant growth impact from emerging technologies, especially AI.
There is also a bear case, much of it built around supply constraints and the possibility of unexpectedly high inflation. But there’s another concern about the economy going forward, and part of it predates the pandemic. It came up during…